Mosquito community composition shapes virus prevalence patterns along anthropogenic disturbance gradients

Previously unknown pathogens often emerge from primary ecosystems, but there is little knowledge on the mechanism behind. Most studies analyzing the influence of land-use change on pathogen emergence focus on a single host-pathogen system and often observe contrary effects. We studied virus diversity and prevalence patterns in natural and disturbed ecosystems using a multi-host and multi-taxa approach. We detected 331 viral sequences pertaining to 49 viruses of ten RNA-virus families. Highest host and virus diversity was observed in pristine and intermediately disturbed habitats. The majority of the viruses was detected with low prevalence. However, nine viruses were found frequently of which five viruses increased in prevalence from pristine to disturbed habitats, in congruence with the dilution effect hypothesis. Interestingly, the observed increased prevalence of these five viruses in disturbed habitats was not caused by higher host infection rates but by increased host abundance, an effect tentatively named abundance effect. Impact statementOur data show that ecosystem disturbance can lead to a turnover in host community composition and that more individuals of a single species is a key driver of virus emergence.