Understanding price growth in the market for targeted oncology therapies.

OBJECTIVES: The causes of oncology drug price growth remain unclear. Analyzing corresponding trends in revenue can help understand these causes. This study seeks to assess changes over time in prices, patient counts, and drug-level revenues in the US market for oncology therapies and to investigate whether price growth is driven by an increased ability by pharmaceutical firms to capture profits. STUDY DESIGN: Nineteen-year retrospective study (1997-2015). METHODS: We used panel regression to investigate trends in prices, patient counts, and revenues within a US national data set consisting of targeted oncology therapies launched in different eras. RESULTS: We find that prices have roughly tripled, whereas average patient counts per therapy have fallen by 85% to 90% over this period. However, the entire distribution of annual revenues has fallen: For instance, median revenues for drugs launched in the early 2010s are about half of what they were for drugs launched in the late 1990s. CONCLUSIONS: Future research on the causes of quantity decline can help inform pharmaceutical policy.