On the social and cognitive dimensions of wicked environmental problems characterized by conceptual and solution uncertainty.

We develop a quantitative framework for understanding the class of wicked problems that emerge at the intersections of natural, social, and technological complex systems. Wicked problems reflect our incomplete understanding of interdependent global systems and the hyper-risk they pose; such problems escape solutions because they are often ill-defined and thus mis-identified and under-appreciated by problem-solvers and the communities they constitute. Because cross-boundary problems can be dissected from various viewpoints, such diversity can nevertheless contribute confusion to the collective understanding of the problem. We illustrate this paradox by analyzing the development of both topical and scholarly communities within three wicked domains: deforestation, invasive species, and wildlife trade research. Informed by comprehensive bibliometric analysis of both topical and collaboration communities emerging within and around each domain, we identify symptomatic characteristics of wicked uncertainty based upon quantitative assessment of consolidation or diversification of knowledge trajectories representing each domain. We argue that such knowledge trajectories are indicative of the underlying uncertainties of each research domain, which tend to exacerbate the wickedness of the problem itself. Notably, our results indicate that wildlife trade may become a neglected wicked problem due to high uncertainty, research paucity, and delayed knowledge consolidation.