How to decarbonize developing cities by 2050: A case from Tabriz-Iran

Abstract This paper investigates the sustainability of Tabriz City focusing on its decarbonization. Statistical, quantitative, and comparative research methods are used to analyze the total energy consumed, conversion of primary energy, final exergy, and losses analysis according to the renewable and carbon-based energies. Then, the renewable resource potentials of the city are simulated using Grasshopper plug-in-Rhino simulator, THERM, PVSyst photovoltaic software, and ArcMap. In terms of the socio-economic assessment, non-oil Per Capita GDP, emissions, and energy intensities are analyzed concerning the B2DS scenario by 2050. The per capita GDP of the city is 71% of the country's average value. Tabriz's real GDP growth averaged −1.11% per year, primary energy demand increased by an average of 6.1%, CO2 emissions from energy use grew by an average of 6% annually and the emission intensity of the economy increased by a total of 52.02%, in the period from 2011 to 2019. Finally, it is shown that the city consumes 58050 GWh/year of different carbon-based resources that only produced 20110 GWh/year of useful work with 5.63 MT CO2 emissions, while the same work could locally be supplied by 30000 GWh/year RE with a minimum rate of 0.18 MT CO2 emissions. The city Landfill receives 1000 tons/day of MSW, but two-thirds of this amount can be recycled. Regarding different sectors, buildings produce half of the CO2. The cement industry with dual pollutants (17%) is the most polluting factory. Carbon-based electricity (66%) is the most polluting form of energy. In terms of carbon sequestration requirements with trees, shifting from fossil fuels toward green energies, EE, and recycling MSW can plunge required trees from 81.9 to 1.16 million trees. This paper highlights the importance of electrification of transportation based on RE, energy performance of buildings, and all sectors.