Predicting land use/cover change in Long Island Sound Watersheds and its effect on invasive species: a case study for glossy buckthorn

ABSTRACTLand use/cover change (LUCC) is a major threat to ecosystems. It may affect the abundance and distribution of species. Despite the importance of LUCC to ecological patterns and processes, few quantitative projections are available for use in ecological modelling. To fill in this literature gap, we constructed a LUCC model for Long Island Sound Watersheds (LISW) and explored the potential effect of the future LUCC on the range size of an invasive species (glossy buckthorn, Frangula alnus). We first applied the multi-layer perceptron–Markov chain model to predict the future LUCC in the LISW area within New England, USA, and then used the predicted land use/cover data as input into a species distribution model to simulate the future range size of glossy buckthorn. Our results indicate that under the current LUCC trend, there is a continued loss of forest and an increase of developed land in the near future, and this LUCC affects the relative suitability for glossy buckthorn.