A chance-constrained urban agglomeration energy model for cooperative carbon emission management

Abstract The impacts of climate change need to be mitigated by controlling the emissions of carbon dioxide. The restriction of carbon dioxide emissions will limit fossil-fuel-fired electricity and affect water consumption in energy-related industries. In this study, a chance-constrained urban agglomeration energy model is developed to plan a cooperative energy-water nexus system with carbon dioxide emission constraints at the regional scale. The model can not only reflect uncertainties expressed as random variables and interval values but also manage energy-water nexus systems under cooperation mechanism effectively. The model is applied to the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Dongguan region, wherein two scenarios with/without cooperative carbon dioxide emission strategies under different water resource risks are analyzed. Results reveal that the system cost of the study region would decrease under the cooperative carbon dioxide emission strategy. Compared with the case without mitigation cooperation, the cost of those with cooperation would reduce by [4.3, 4.8] % (with 6.2% more carbon dioxide emission) in Shenzhen. The results also demonstrate that water consumption would increase as constraint-violation level decreases from 0.2 to 0. The developed model is efficient for facilitating regional dynamic analyses of carbon dioxide emission mitigation and the associated economic cost under different policy scenarios and system risks.