Developing scenarios to explore impacts and weaknesses in aviation response exercises for volcanic ash eruptions in Europe

Abstract Ash from volcanic eruptions can severely interrupt air traffic, as the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull volcano in 2010 impressively demonstrated. This study used historic eruption and meteorological data to develop two volcanic ash scenarios using Icelandic volcanoes. The scenarios demonstrate the potential scale of events in terms of duration and intensity and enable an investigation of responses either during a long period of continuous risk assessment and maintenance or when facing a large-scale severe interruption of air traffic, while under current regulations. Aviation experts were invited to discuss the scenarios to help create a picture of the current resilience of the aviation sector and to identify opportunities for improvement in risk management. The research demonstrates that under both scenarios the impact on air traffic would be significant. Weaknesses in current response exercises to volcanic events were identified, suggesting a need to address more extreme scenarios and test responses to events of longer duration. The method employed in this study served as an example to assess the effects of possible impacts of volcanic eruptions on aviation in the North Atlantic and could be applied to other parts of the world.