Model-based approaches for technology planning and roadmapping: Technology forecasting and game-theoretic modeling

Abstract This paper proposes a novel model-based approach to technology planning and roadmapping, consisting of two complementary steps: technology forecasting and game-theoretic planning. The inherent uncertainty of target technology performances, timelines and risks impact the roadmapping process. Reducing this uncertainty is a major challenge and allows elaborating different options and scenarios. A formal methodology is proposed for quantitative forecasting in a multi-dimensional space (different performance metrics and time) based on past technology development trend information. The method adopts concepts and approaches from econometrics and is formulated as a convex optimization problem with different constraints on the frontier's shape. It provides useful product line assessment benchmarks and helps to set reasonable goals for future technology developments. Game-theoretic planning allows addressing the strategic decisions to take, considering the technology landscape, markets, and competition. The strategic decisions affect in turn other companies as well, which is the basis for the application of game theory, in the form of best-response functions to determine the subsequent reactions and movements of rivals in a technological landscape. The result is a simulation of a sequential game in technology space, allowing evaluating possible technological development pathways and determining optimal models on the Pareto frontiers, potential targets for technology roadmapping.