Enduring ethnicity: the political survival of incumbent ethnic parties in Western democracies

Abstract In this paper I argue that incumbent ethnic and class-based parties are differently judged by voters at election time. Incumbent ethnic parties tend to be evaluated according to their defence of the ethno-nationalist programme of national independence and ethnic hegemony. Thus, they are relatively immune against electoral punishment stemming from government performance as conventionally defined in economic terms. Incumbent class-based parties tend to be judged according to their economic performance. This difference in the way voters assess the two types of parties becomes a competitive advantage for ethnic parties when they share the government with class parties. Under these circumstances, ethnic parties are less severely punished than class parties and therefore they are more likely to remain in power. I examine aggregate data from the regional governments of Canada, Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom and Denmark, focusing on three main empirical indicators: electoral performance, vote fluctuation and survival in office. Key words: ethnic parties, class parties, electoral performance, political survival, elections.