Prediction of treatment failure during infliximab induction therapy in inflammatory bowel disease patients based on pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling.

Abstract Background In infliximab (IFX) treatment for Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), it is difficult to predict treatment failure during the induction phase. In the present study for optimal IFX treatment, we attempted to estimate serum IFX concentration and clinical response in individual patients during the induction phase to predict the indication of therapeutic effect and the possibility of treatment failure in the maintenance phase. Methods We estimated pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) parameters and predicted the serum IFX concentration and clinical response using a PK/PD model and Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian analysis method during the induction phase. Then, we determined whether the indication of therapeutic effect between predicted and observed clinical response were matched during the maintenance phase. Results Data obtained from 15 patients were analyzed. The correlation between predicted and observed values of serum IFX concentration (Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient, 0.700; P Conclusions This study presents prediction of serum IFX concentration and clinical response in individual patients during induction therapy, with presumption of the indication of therapeutic effect and the treatment failure in the maintenance phase. Our results show the possibility of optimizing IFX therapy during the induction phase.