Assessment of alluvial trends toward dynamic equilibrium under chronic climatic forcing

Abstract A remote proglacial stream in Chilean Patagonia was examined at two temporal scales to evaluate the downstream spatial progression of morphodynamics in response to chronic climatic forcing. Historic aerial imagery indicates alluvial channel response to a reduction in glacigenic sediment delivery that is driving reach-scale alterations to the channel planform and affecting the extent and character of geomorphic reaches at centurial timescales. At the decadal timescale, fluvial morphodynamics show a downstream spatial convergence toward dynamic equilibrium. The attainment of dynamic equilibrium is not considered herein, but the trend toward such a condition is discussed. Metrics of flood magnitude, hydraulic energy thresholds, inter-annual energy expenditure, variability of channel dimensions, and continuity of sediment transport capacity illustrate how alluvial systems respond to chronic climatic forcing and deglaciation subject to the constraints of valley conditions. A conceptual proglacial alluvial model is proposed in order to characterize expected fluvial changes and to evaluate the downstream spatial progression. This model is based on a combination of previous observations of alluvial evolution and a location-for-time-substitution approach validated by an intensive 3 year field data collection program.