SIMULAÇÃO DA EVOLUÇÃO DO REBANHO CONSIDERANDO POTENCIAL DE CRESCIMENTO E HABILIDADE MATERNA COMO CRITÉRIOS DE SELEÇÃO EM BOVINOS DE CORTE

The aim of this study was to verify, by simulation, the result of twenty years of selection for maternal ability and growth in productivity in a selection Nellore herd raised in the savannah biome. Data were reported to the DECI (Decision Evaluator for the Industry Cattle) simulation model reflecting the real situation of registered purebred Nellore herd of the Embrapa Cerrados (Nellore BRGN). The simulation model DECI was effective to predict the response to genetic selection for high growth rate and maternal ability, signaling direct improvement in the response of 5.5% in milk yield causing an increased pre-weaning weight gain (9.3%), and the weaning weight of calf (10%). However, were found increased, the average maturity weight (465 kg), the weight of the cow in the moment of the partum (476 kg), and the weaning weight of the cow (520 kg). These results indicate higher costs for herd maintenance due to the increase in body size and together, the requirements for maintenance of these animals. The increased milk yield of mothers caused a decrease in body condition of delivery (9.3%) and weaning (3.9%). Under the simulated conditions, the adoption of the management techniques resulted from the simulation may increase the productive rates of the Nellore Embrapa Cerrados herd.