Decadal–centennial hydroclimate variability over eastern China during the last millennium: Results from the product of Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation: 过去千年中国东部年代际-百年尺度干湿变化特征:基于古水文动力同化数据

Abstract Decadal–centennial hydroclimate variability over eastern China during the last millennium is investigated using the product of Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation (PHYDA). Results reveal that the PHYDA depicts a more homogeneous temporal pattern during the early part of the Little Ice Age with other reconstructions than those during the other periods, and could also identify the droughts of 1352–90 AD, 1445–98 AD, 1580–94 AD, and 1626–65 AD during this period. On centennial time scales, the PHYDA shows that the linkage between the Palmer drought severity index over eastern China and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index is more marked than that with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the location of the intertropical convergence zone over the Asian–Australian monsoon area during the period after the 1350s. For the decadal droughts, the PHYDA suggests most of the drought events during the last millennium were linked to the El Nino–like mean states and the negative AMO states. 摘要 利用古水文动力同化数据 (PHYDA) 研究了过去千年中国东部年代际-百年尺度干湿变化特征.结果表明, 对比其它重建数据PHYDA在百年尺度上对小冰期前期中国东部干湿变化的再现能力最好, 其对这一时期发生的年代际干旱事件包括1352–90年,1445–98年,1580–94年和1626–65年干旱事件的再现能力也最强.通过与强迫因子的对比和回归分析, 发现1350年后中国东部百年尺度干事变化主要受北大西洋年代际振荡影响, 而年代际干旱事件的主导因子则是厄尔尼诺和负位相的北大西洋年代际振荡.