Heterogeneously catalyzed biodiesel production from Azadiricha Indica oil: Predictive modelling with uncertainty quantification, experimental optimization and techno-economic analysis.

Abstract This study presents predictive modelling with uncertainty analysis, optimization and techno-economic feasibility of Bio-catalyzed Biodiesel Production from Azidirica Indica Oil (BCBPAIO). Central Composite Design (CCD) predictive model and optimum conditions for BCBPAIO were developed in Design Expert software. The model uncertainty analysis was performed using Monte Carlo simulation. The BCBPAIO simulation and economic analysis were conducted in ASPEN Batch Process Developer V10. The correlation coefficient (R2) and adjusted R2 value of the CCD model were 0.9922 and 0.9780 respectively. CCD model certainty gave 73.51 % with 100,000 trials; the oil transesterification optimum conditions gave 87.04 % conversion with 3.62 wt. % of catalysts; and methanol to oil molar ratio of 8:1 at 59 0C for 4 h. The annual production cost, total capital investment, payback time and internal rate of returns are $ 3537105, $ 5243784, 2.67 and 43 % respectively. This study shows that the production is profitably feasible.