Energy systems and climate policy - Long-term scenarios for an uncertain future
2007
In this thesis various forms of scenario analysis are discussed both to
explore 1) how energy system and associated greenhouse gas emissions may
develop in the absence of climate policy and 2) how strategies aimed at
drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions may turn out. As
uncertainties play a major role in long-term scenarios, the thesis also
discusses various forms of dealing with uncertainty in scenario analysis.
The thesis finds that global emissions are expected to continue to grow
under a wide-range of different assumptions in the absense of climate
policy. At the same time, the required reductions for reaching low
greenhouse gas concentrations levels consistent with a 2 degree Celsius
target are shown to be technically feasible within a likely range of direct
costs of 1-2% of GDP. However, this will require immediate action using a
broad range of options and worldwide participation in mitigating greenhouse
gas emissions. Possible crucial factors in determining the likelihood of
achieving ambitious climate targets include assumptions on technology
development and the possible links between climate policy and such related
issues as the reduction of air pollution.
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