Documentation of Production: Allied Medical Publication 8(B), Volume 2, Medical Planning Guide of NBC Battle Casualties (Biological)

Abstract : This paper captures the technical underpinnings (including algorithms, assumptions, and data) of Allied Medical Publication 8(B), Medical Planning Guide of NBC Battle Casualties, Biological (AMedP-8 Biological). It provides users of AMedP-8 Biological an understanding of the methodology used to obtain the casualty estimates therein, as well as the underlying assumptions and limitations of those estimates. In collaboration with Veridian Pacific-Sierra Research Corporation (Veridian PSR) and General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems (GDAIS), the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) completed the most recent version of AMedP-8 Biological in 2005 for the Army Office of the Surgeon General, the custodian of this NATO publication. Ratification is pending. AMedP-8 Biological allows the user to estimate casualties by injury type and time of onset as a function of exposure and resulting performance degradation. Casualty estimates are based on a combination of tactical scenario, agent (anthrax, botulinum neurotoxin, plague, tularemia, Staphylococcal enterotoxin B, Q fever, Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis, smallpox, brucellosis, glanders, and influenza as a disease of military significance), weapon type (MRLS, bombs, TBMs, point sprayers, line sprayers), attack intensity (heavy, moderate, or light), and posture (protection unavailable or protection available). For agents that result in contagious diseases (plague, smallpox), human sources of disease introduction have also been modeled as a separate scenario, and person-to-person disease transmission has been considered for all scenarios. For influenza, human sources are the only sources of disease introduction, since this disease was modeled only as a disease of military importance, not as a weaponized biological agent. Individual protective equipment is considered for physical protection, and no medical protection is considered in any of the scenarios.