Spatial prediction of brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) distribution using a combination of remotely sensed and field-observed environmental data

Context In New Zealand, the introduced brushtail possum, Trichosurus vulpecula, is a reservoir of bovine tuberculosis and as such poses a major threat to the livestock industry. Aerial 1080 poisoning is an important tool for possum control but is expensive, creating an ongoing need for ever more cost-effective ways of using this technique. Aims To develop geographic information system (GIS) models to better predict spatial variation in the distribution of unmanaged possum populations, to facilitate better targeting of control activities. Methods Relative abundance of possums and their distribution among habitat types were surveyed in a dry high-country area of the northern South Island. Two GIS-based models were developed to predict the relative abundance of possums on trap lines. The first model used remotely sensed (digital) environmental data; the second complemented the remotely sensed data with fine-scale habitat and topographic data collected on the ground. Key results Digital environmental factors and habitat features proved to be key predictors of relative possum abundance. In both GIS models, height above valley floor, presence of forest cover and mean annual temperature were the strongest predictors. Conclusions Predictive maps (projections) of relative possum abundance produced from these models can provide useful decision-support tools for pest-control managers, by enabling possum control to be targeted spatially. Implications Spatially targeted pest control could allow effective control activities for invasive species or disease vectors to be applied at a lower cost for the same benefit.