Демографический профиль населения, проживающего в районах размещения предприятий горно-металлургического комплекса в европейской части Арктической зоны Российской Федерации

Introduction: The relevance of the study is determined by the national goals of strategic development providing for sustainable population growth and an increase in active life expectancy, primarily in demographically disadvantaged areas to which most of the regions of the Russian Arctic Zone belong. Objective: To assess changes in the demographic structure of the Murmansk Region, one of the most industrially developed regions of the Russian Arctic, and the loss of its labor potential in 1989–2019 in order to substantiate the necessity to consider these changes for better planning of health care and adjusting the resource provision of the regional health care system. Materials and methods: We studied demographic characteristics of the population residing in administrative areas of the Murmansk Region with the main town-forming metals and mining enterprises by comparing data for 1989 with those for the years 1999, 2009, and 2015–2019 to establish trends in medical demography situation. The average age of the population was estimated as the arithmetic mean based on distribution of the population by age groups. Results: We established a significant decrease in the size of population of the Murmansk Region in 1989–2019 (by 34.8 %) accompanied by changes in the demographic profile. The increase in the average age of the population was attributed to the sharp decline in the child population, a decrease in the number of people of working age (16–59 years), and a significant increase in the population of older age groups. Changes in the age structure of the population had a significant effect on the old age dependency ratio, which demonstrated a 2.7 and 3.2-fold increase over the three 1989-to-2019 decades in the region and its industrial monotowns, respectively. Conclusion: The negative structural demographic trend resulted in a pronounced regressive regional age and sex pyramid, which by 2019 had a characteristic unstable shape with a relatively narrow base and a slope of its top to the left due to the significant predominance of the female population in the older age group. The observed changes in the demographic profile of the population suggest the need to consider this trend when planning local social policy including the volume and resource provision of health care services.