How do changes in climate and consumption loads affect residential PV coupled battery energy systems

Abstract Weather conditions and domestic consumption belong to the essential boundary conditions in the optimal dimensioning of residential battery storage systems. In future, both factors will undergo transitions due to climate change and efficiency enhancement of domestic appliances. This study seeks to assess potential developments in climate and consumption loads on the battery flows and residual loads for the near-time future. For this purpose, a land surface processes model with an integrated domestic energy system component is applied. Three scenarios project changes in consumption loads and meteorological conditions for the year 2040. The study area includes 4906 buildings located in the south of Germany. The results show a general rise of grid feed-in rates between 21% and 27% due to increased photovoltaic production. Climate change is expected to raise battery utilization during the winter months, whereas decreasing effects from efficiency enhancement dominate in the summer. The self-consumption rate declines between 4% and 12%, whereas self-sufficiency rises up to 6%. Consequently, in the assessment of battery dimensioning approaches maximizing self-consumption or profitability, we recommend including the shifts in battery utilization and residual loads arising from future changes in climate and consumption loads.