Modelling physico-chemical factors affecting occurrences of a non-indigenous planktonic copepod in northeast Pacific estuaries

Estuarine ecosystems along the Pacific coast of North America are vulnerable to invasions by non-indigenous planktonic copepods, with documented invasions by at least nine species introduced via ship’s ballast. One of these, the calanoid copepod Pseudodiaptomus inopinus, now occurs in a relatively wide geographical area in coastal estuaries of Washington and Oregon States. Although it appears to be well established in the region, plankton surveys conducted in 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 in estuaries from southern Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada, to northern California, United States indicate that it has not expanded its range. This static distribution suggests that P. inopinus has reached a distributional limit, and it may thus be a good organism for applying models for predicting planktonic invasions, by characterizing estuaries with and without populations of the copepod. In this study, we applied both parametric, linear (discriminant function analysis, logistic regression) and nonparametric, non-linear (classification trees) techniques to develop models for occurrence of P. inopinus, to identify parameters that may lead to successful invasions and to identify specific estuaries or regions that might be at risk of invasion by this species. Both model types had similar results, identifying relatively simple salinity- and stratification-based models as good predictors of P. inopinus. While different models selected slightly different sets of variables and thresholds, all models identified relatively low salinity and stratification of water column temperature and salinity as important predictors of P. inopinus presence. The models also identified several “false positives” that mainly occurred in more inland waters of Puget Sound—estuaries that did not have P. inopinus, but had the conditions that support it, and which may be at risk for future invasions by this species.