Large-scale flooding analysis in the suburbs of Tokyo Metropolis caused by levee breach of the Tone River using a 2D hydrodynamic model

In order to assess the effects of climate change on flood disasters in urban areas, we applied a two dimensional finite element hydrodynamic model (2D-FEM) to simulate flood processes for the case analysis of levee breach caused by Kathleen Typhoon on 16 September 1947 in Kurihashi reach of Tone River, upstream of Tokyo area. The purpose is to use the model to simulate flood inundation processes under the present topography and land-use conditions with impending extreme flood scenarios due to climate change for mega-urban areas like Tokyo. Simulation used 100 m resolution topographic data (in PWRI), which was derived from original LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data, and levee breach hydrographic data in 1947. In this paper, we will describe the application of the model with calibration approach and techniques when applying for such fine spatial resolution in urban environments. The fine unstructured triangular FEM mesh of the model appeared to be the most capable of introducing of constructions like roads/levees in simulations. Model results can be used to generate flood mapping, subsequently uploaded to Google Earth interface, making the modeling and presentation process much comprehensible to the general public.