The CAIDE Dementia Risk Score and the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study

INTRODUCTION: The CAIDE (Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia) dementia risk score is based on demographic, genetic, and modifiable risk factors in midlife and has been shown to be predictive of later-life dementia. OBJECTIVE: To test the predictive capacity of the CAIDE dementia risk score among a cohort of Japanese-American men. METHODS: Midlife measures were obtained from a sample of 3,582 Japanese-American men in the Honolulu Heart Program (1965-1968, average age = 53.1 years). A follow-up exam in 1991 (average age = 77.8 years) assessed cognitive impairment using the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (CASI). Severe cognitive impairment was defined as a CASI score <60. RESULTS: In this cohort, the CAIDE dementia risk score demonstrates significant association with later-life severe cognitive impairment (OR = 1.477, 95% CI: 1.39-1.58). However, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve c-statistics suggests poor predictive ability (c = 0.645, 95% CI: 0.62-0.67). Using a score cut-point of 10, the accuracy is acceptable (0.82), but the sensitivity is low (0.50). CONCLUSION: While the CAIDE dementia risk score at midlife is associated with later development of cognitive impairment in Japanese-American men, its predictive capacity in this population is weak.