Multiple discriminant analysis for prognosis of refractory anemia

: Forty-eight patients with refractory anemia (RA) were retrospectively analyzed for their prognosis and subclassified into three groups: 12 patients with hematological improvement (A), 23 patients with no changes (B), and 13 patients with progression to RAEB or acute leukemia (C). For all patients, the median survival were 49.2 months, and the rate of leukemic transformation was 16%. The median survivals were 60.6, 32.1, and 17.9 months, respectively, for groups A, B and C. The factors indicating poor prognosis were low reticulocyte counts, low neutrophil alkaline phosphatase activity, low% red cell utilization, high M/E ratio, high blast percentage in the bone marrow and cytological abnormalities in the granulocyte and megakaryocyte series. By using multiple discriminant analysis, we obtained a formula for the prognostic estimation with a discrimination probability of 62.5%. This formula could predict either the patients with good (Y greater than 0.85) or poor (Y less than 0.59) prognosis, and might be useful to select the treatment for this intractable anemia at the time of diagnosis.