Potential Outcomes for the 2007 and 2011 Irish elections under a differentelectoral system. A Submission to the Convention on the Constitution.

The purpose of this study is to examine what might have been the outcomes of Ireland’s 2007 and 2011 Dail elections if, instead of being conducted under the current constitutionally mandated PRSTV electoral system, these had instead been conducted under any of three alternative electoral systems. The three alternatives that we explore for each of these two elections are: 1. The First Past the Post electoral system (Single Member Plurality 2. The Alternative Vote electoral system (Single Transferable Vote in Single Seat Constituencies) 3. The Mixed Member Proportional electoral system (variant of a List electoral system as used in Germany)