Planning, policy and integration for sustainable development of offshore wind energy in Vietnam 2022 - 2030

The wind power sector took off in Vietnam after the feed-in tariff was raised to 8.5 UScents / kWh for onshore projects in 2018. As of March 2021, 113 wind projects with total capacity 6,038MW have signed a power purchase agreement. Most are expected to enter commercial operation before December 2021. We explore here three scenarios for wind power development in Vietnam through 2030. We argue that by 2030 the wind power installed capacity in the New Normal could be around 17 GW onshore and 10 GW offshore. In a Factor Three scenario, offshore wind reaches 21 GW by 2030. This has three policy implications. First, Vietnam’s next power development plan provides an important opportunity to increase at low costs the level of ambition of wind power development. Second, flexibility should be the guiding principle of the plan. Third, to realize the large potential of offshore wind power, infrastructure planning has to start soon.