Probabilistic Forecast of Coastal Waves for Flood Warning Applications at Reunion Island (Indian Ocean)

ABSTRACT Lecacheux, S.; Bonnardot, F.; Rousseau, M.; Paris F.; Pedreros, R.; Nicolae Lerma, A.; Quetelard, H., and Barbary, D., 2018. Probabilistic forecast of coastal waves for flood warning applications at Reunion Island (Indian Ocean). In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 776–780. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. La Reunion being a small isolated island, the coastal impacts of tropical cyclones transiting nearby are tightly related to the relative position of the track, wind intensity and size. Thus, the forecast of cyclone-induced waves should be conducted in a probabilistic manner. Using ensemble track and intensity forecasts of Bonnardot and Quetelard (2016), the approach presented here relies on two steps: (1) Considering that the use of parametric models leads to an underestimation of wave heights distant from the cyclone eye, the fo...