Understanding the predictors of services use in older people to plan for and provide quality cost effective care

Introduction: It is anticipated that by 2030 the number of older people and people living with long term conditions will have significantly increased. At the same time, it is expected that there will be a shift to providing more health care in the community. Browning et al [1] using a prospective 16-year longitudinal study of 1000 older Australians described three ageing groups (i) ageing well (30%); initially ageing well then deteriorating (50%); consistently ageing poorly (20%). Understanding the predictors of services use in older people is important in planning and providing quality care. Predictors of general practice service use from a small community-based studies have included: lower age, fewer medical conditions, restful sleep, good nutrition, decreased stress, being a non-smoker and good social support [2]. Using our existing data linkage resource, the Central and Eastern Sydney Primary and Community Health Cohort/Resource (CES-PC 1-22. 2 -Korten AE, Jacomb PA, Jiao Z, Christensen H, Jorm AF, Henderson AS, Rodgers B. Predictors of GP service use: a community survey of an elderly Australian sample. Aust N Z J Public Health. 1998; 22: 609-615.