Quantifying uncertainty on thin ice The contribution of ice sheets to sea-level rise still has large uncertainties that are yet to be quantified.
2013
introduces assumptions on accumulation, ice-sheet collapse, spatial correlation, mass-balance baseline and growth models, and uses prior distributions on modelling coefficients. Monte Carlo simulations then produce probabilistic predictions in a base case — where input parameters are set to their most probable value — with canonical variations exploring sensitivity to assumptions. Writing in
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