Quantifying the supply-demand balance of ecosystem services and identifying its spatial determinants: A case study of ecosystem restoration hotspot in Southwest China

Abstract Ecosystem conservation and restoration are the primary practices for enhancing ecosystem services (ESs) and achieving sustainable development goals. However, inappropriate land use interventions and revegetation projects may lead to an imbalance between the supply and demand of ESs. This study applied the ES matrix approach and spatial panel models to quantify the supply–demand balance of ESs in the southwest karst region and to identify their spatial determinants and spillover effects. The overall patterns for landscape metrics between 1980 and 2015 remained relatively stable, while landscape fragmentation and population growth weakened the ES supply capacity but increased the demand, which caused an imbalance (i.e. the demand exceeded the supply), particularly in the surrounding areas of the urban agglomerations. Population density and individual landscape metrics were significantly associated with ES balance (p