Method for Analyzing Uncertainty of Simulation Results in Accident Reconstruction

There are many uncertain factors in accident reconstruction,so it is necessary to study the influence of these factors to improve the objectivity and confidence of simulation results.Based on Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) and Monte Carlo methods,a method for analyzing uncertainty of simulation results in accident reconstruction was proposed.In this method: firstly,the sample set was generated by LHS;and then simulation experiments were conducted according to the test table;after that,the response surface model of the accident reconstruction model was obtained through regression analysis;finally,the range of accident reconstruction results could be calculated by combining the response surface model and Monte Carlo method.Finally the method was applied to an accident case with explicit expression and the results obtained are very close to those with basic uncertainty analysis method and Monte Carlo method,and then the practicability of the method was also demonstrated by a true accident case.