Analysis and evaluation of emergency response using project management and simulation techniques

This article describes how emergency response capabilities can be analyzed and evaluated using project management and simulation techniques. This evaluation approach is contrasted with traditional exercise-based evaluation strategies. Project and simulation models of response tasks are shown to be valuable tools for analyzing response times and variability in response times. Project models are relatively easy to develop and provide revealing information on the interactions of the various players in the emergency response system, but they are limited because they are based on point estimation. The development of simulation models is somewhat more involved, but because the models use probability distributions rather than point estimates, they yield a more accurate representation of the potential behavior of the emergency response system. These ideas and techniques were developed through application in the US Army Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program (CSEPP).