Integrated probabilistic framework for domino effect and risk analysis

The present paper deals with domino effect analysis for industrial facilities. Actually, an explosion or accident may generate various sets of projectiles. In their trajectory, they may impact other existing facilities, such as tanks under high-pressure or other strategic components or installations (headquarters, etc). If the impacted targets fail, this may give rise to other sets of projectiles and so on. These potential series of accidents are known as domino effect. A probabilistic approach is developed by the authors. The probability of domino effect occurrence requires three main steps:-Probabilistic modelling of the source term (first set of projectiles): probability of the first explosion occurrence and therefore number, masses, velocities, departure angles, geometrical shape and dimensions, constitutive materials properties are described with probabilistic distributions. -Probabilistic modelling of the target term (first set of impacted targets): number of impacting projectiles, velocities, incidence angles and energy at impact, constitutive materials and the dimensions of the impacted targets, projectiles penetration depths into the targets are also described with probabilistic distributions. -Evaluation of the risks of second set of explosions that may take place in the impacted components. Simulations (3D) are done within this probabilistic framework:-For the probabilistic description of the source term, the authors have collected existing models from the literature. -The authors propose new models for the impact (probability of impact which depends on the trajectory and geometry of both the target and projectile: ellipses, cylinders and planar plates, in a first step) and the penetration depth when there is impact. A simplified mechanical model is actually developed in the case of cylindrical rods impacting rectangular plates, both are metal made. The estimated penetration depth into the target is compared to the experimental data (4 data sets) collected from the literature with the following features: projectile masses ranging from 0.1g up to 250kg, projectile velocities ranging from 10m/s up to 2100m/s, projectile diameters ranging from 1.5mm up to 90mm, target strengths ranging from 300MPa up to 1400MPa and incidence angles ranging from 0^o up to 70^o. Monte-Carlo simulations are ran in order to calculate the different probabilities: probability of impact, distribution of the penetration depth and probability of domino effect.