Prediction of Forecast Busts by Variation of Weather Elements of WRF using Different Physical Schemes

This study investigates the usability of variation of forecasted values of weather elements such as low level cloud coverage among Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) outputs using different physical schemes so as to predict large error of solar irradiance forecast. The predictability is evaluated by using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Area Under Curves (AUC). Predictability by using the variation of forecasted values of low level cloud coverage or irradiances is relatively high for the target points in the Pacific Ocean side in the Chubu area in Japan. On the other hand, predictability by using the variation of forecasted values of wind speed is relatively high for the target points in the Japan Sea side, because the forecast of changes in the seasonal winds seems difficult.