Timing of redd construction by fall chinook salmon in the hanford reach of the Columbia river

Spawning habits of fall Chinook salmon in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River have been documented with annual aerial surveys since 1948. We developed a series of models analysing these data, exploring the influence of environmental factors on the timing of redd construction. These models included a logistic regression and a dynamic modelling approach, with combinations of day of year (as a surrogate for environmental cues such as day length), water temperature and discharge as potential explanatory factors. Results of these analyses indicate that day of year was the strongest predictor of the timing of redd construction, but with significant modifying effects of water temperature and discharge. The dynamic modelling approach provides substantial advantages over a traditional logistic regression, including (1) the ability to treat data collected at non-synchronous time intervals in a consistent fashion and (2) the ability to easily implement complex functions (e.g., threshold responses) relating behaviour to environmental cues. Evaluation of the series as a whole indicates that the median date of redd construction has increased over time, from approximately day 299 in 1950 to day 307 in 2010, as has the temperature on Oct 1 (16.3 °C–18.1 °C). The degree to which these changes are caused by climate change or dam operations is uncertain, however. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.