Mechanistic, Probabilistic Model to Estimate the Factor of Safety of Large-diameter Cast Iron Water Mains: Sensitivity Analysis☆

Abstract A mechanistic model is presented to calculate the factor of safety of large-diameter grey cast iron water mains. Uncertainty in the model inputs is accounted for using Monte Carlo simulation. The model is used in a deterministic sensitivity analysis to determine which inputs have the largest effect on the factor of safety. A stochastic sensitivity analysis is undertaken to further investigate the sensitivity of the model output to the variables identified in the deterministic analysis.