Multi-scale variability and trends of precipitation in North China

The issue of water shortage and related eco-environmental degradation in North China is one of the major emerging problems in China. Precipitation is the most key factor for water resources. Based on the historical flood/dryness grade dataset during the period of 1470–2000 obtained from 25 gauging stations in North China, the multi-scale variability and trends are analyzed by means of power spectral and continuous wavelet transform. It is found that the precipitation is characterized by obvious seasonal changes, quasi biennial oscillations, inter-annual 4–7 year component and inter-decadal 19-year periodicity. The MK test results showe that step changes occurred around 1914 and 1964 in the annual precipitation. As for the historical flood/dryness grade time series, it is characterized by 4∼5 year ENSO mode inter-annual oscillation, quasi-10 year inter-decadal variability, quasi-24 year component and 50–80 year centurial periodicity. However, the scales of these variations have decreased significantly since the 1970s. The trend for precipitation change in North China has been negative for last 30 years. Further research shows that North China will continue to become dryer until 2015 and may change to a wetter regime after 2020. These findings should be helpful for future decision-making to ensure sustainable water resource management in North China.