Комплексная модель оценки риска развития и прогрессирования возрастной макулярной дегенерации

Purpose : to develop a method and a statistical model to estimate individual risk of AMD and the risk for progression to advanced AMD using clinical and genetic risk factors. Methods : A statistical risk assessment model was developed using stepwise binary logistic regression analysis. to estimate the population differences in the prevalence of allelic variants of genes and for the development of models adapted to the population of Moscow region genotyping and assessment of the influence of other risk factors was performed in two groups: patients with differ- ent stages of AMD (n = 74), and control group (n = 116). Genetic risk factors included in the study: polymorphisms in the complement system genes (C3 and CFH), genes at 10q26 locus (ARMS2 and HtRA1), polymorphism in the mitochondrial gene Mt-ND2. Clinical risk factors included in the study: age, gender, high body mass index, smoking history. Results : A comprehensive analysis of genetic and clinical risk factors for AMD in the study group was performed. Compiled statis- tical model assessment of individual risk of AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.5%, AUC = 0.76. Risk factors of late AMD, compiled a statistical model describing the probability of late AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.3%, AUC = 0.73. the developed system allows determining the most likely version of the current late AMD: dry or wet. Conclusion : the developed test system and the mathematical algorhythm for determining the risk of AMD, risk of progression to advanced AMD have fair diagnostic informative and promising for use in clinical practice.