Skin cancer projections and cost savings 2014-2045 of improvements to the Danish sunbed legislation of 2014

BACKGROUND: Sunbed use increases the risk of skin cancer. The Danish sunbed legislation (2014) did not include an age limit. AIM: To model skin cancer incidences and saved costs from potential effects of structural interventions on prevalence of sunbed use. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Survey data from 2015 were collected for 3999 Danes, representative for the Danish population in regards to age, gender and region. Skin cancer incidences were modelled in the Prevent program, using population projections, historic cancer incidence, sunbed use exposure and relative risk of sunbed use on melanoma. RESULTS: If structural interventions like an age limit of 18 years for sunbed use or complete ban had been included in the Danish sunbed legislation in 2014, it would have reduced the annual number of skin cancer cases with 455 or 4177, respectively, while for the entire period, 2014-2045 the total reductions would be 3730 or 81 887 fewer cases, respectively. The cost savings from an age limit or ban, respectively, are 9 and 129 millions € during 2014-2045. CONCLUSION: Legislative restrictive measures which could reduce the sunbed use exists. Danish politicians have the opportunity, supported by the population, to reduce the skin cancer incidence and thereby to reduce the future costs of skin cancer.