A MACROECONOMIC BASELINE WITH STRUCTURAL CHANGE

Paper's Objectives : To develop a baseline for examining environmental impacts for a long-term horizon (to 2030). The baseline makes specific assumptions concerning prospects for sectoral labour productivity. The motivation is that in the previous version of the JOBS model, the baseline scenario assumed the same productivity growth in, for instance, manufacturing and service sectors. As a matter of fact historical data does not confirm such an assumption, so as long as the different sectors will be more or less “labour-saving” (or “capital- saving” or “energy-saving”) in the future the impacts on environmental impacts will be different. Methodology : Undertake simulations on a macroeconomic model called “JOBS” which was developed at the OECD. This is a global recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model that captures international trade. Historically this model is a modified version of the LINKAGE model (World Bank) but with a focus on environmental issues. It is implemented using GAMS software. Database : This version of the model is based on Version 6 of the GTAP dataset. Others databases are used, especially to implement and calibrate prospective scenarios built from population and economic trends and parameters. Among them : United nation population prospects, ILO active population rates, OECD STAN database for sector specifics labour productivity, IEA data for energy efficiency improvements. Anticipated findings : Calculation of endogenous structural change and its implications under assumptions regarding the evolution of sectoral labour productivity.