Sunda-arc seismicity: continuing increase of high-magnitude earthquakes since 2004

Earthquakes with magnitude M greater than or equal to 6.5 are potentially destructive events which may cause tremendous devastation, huge economic loss and large numbers of casualties. Models with predictive or forecasting power are still lacking. Nevertheless, the spatial and temporal information of these seismic events can provide important information about the seismic history and the potential future of a region. This paper analyzes the recently updated International Seismological Centre earthquake catalog of body-wave magnitudes, mb, reported for ~313,500 events in the Sunda-arc region during the last 56 years, i.e., from 1964 to 2020. Based on the data, we report a hitherto unreported strong increase in seismicity during the last two decades associated with strong earthquakes with mb greater than or equal to 6.5. A Gaussian Process Regression Analysis of these ISC-data suggests a continuation of this strong rise in number and strength of events with mb greater than or equal to 6.5, in the region. These yearly maxima in the magnitude of the earthquakes also show another unexpected pattern: about every two-to-three years there is a new maximum in the magnitude and also in the number of earthquakes. Furthermore, a noticeable increase is also observed in the yearly number of the events with mb greater than or equal to 6.5. The trend line generated by Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method suggests continuing increase of such large-magnitude events in the Sunda-arc region during the next decade.