Long-term strategic analysis (towards an energy doctrine)

The formulation of long-term energy strategies requires the synthesis of a large number of economic, social, technical, and environmental factors with due regard to regional and international needs and constraints. It is also clear that the long-term uncertainties are great and that any strategy must be adaptive in being able to respond to new circumstances and events. There is a need to debate and develop the strategic basis of energy policies and to test policies against the uncertainties and contingencies that are identified in the strategic basis. Policy options that would lead to government involvement in energy markets should be analyzed and evaluated in terms of clearly defined objectives with means established to monitor their effectiveness. The orderly functioning of the decision process in industry and government requires a base of analysis and information on strategic issues. This paper outlines an approach to strategic analysis in the energy sector. Emphasis is placed on the logic of the approach to strategic planning and analysis.