Monte Carlo Model of National Wind-Tunnel Demand

Long-term (5-10 years out) projections of wind-tunnel testing demand for national-class facilities are notoriously difficult to generate given the variability of government aerospace agendas, plans, and programs. This paper presents a Monte Carlo model that decomposes the problem into two layers: the decadal likelihood of a program start and the wind-tunnel testing demands of various programs with 90% confidence intervals. Examples are provided to explain how this model could be applied to help inform decisionmakers of future wind-tunnel testing requirements and their likelihood.