Challenges and Opportunities for the Swiss Energy System in Meeting Stringent Climate Mitigation Targets

In this chapter, we assess the feasibility of the Swiss commitments to mitigate climate change under the framework of the Swiss energy strategy objectives: gradual phase-out of nuclear power, energy efficiency gains and deployment of renewables. We employ an enhanced version of the Swiss TIMES energy systems model (STEM), in which the electricity grid, ancillary services markets, and variability of renewable energy are explicitly modelled. We present two main scenarios: (a) a Baseline scenario that passes through the Swiss national determined contribution (NDC); and (b) a Low Carbon scenario consistent with an emission trajectory to achieve a below 2 °C global warming. The analysis shows that moving beyond NDC requires fast and deep emissions reductions. Electrification and efficiency are the key pillars in achieving decarbonisation. New business models emerge that enable active participation of consumers in the energy supply. However, long-term and consistent price signals are needed to unlock energy savings potentials in the end-use sector. Early action and continuous policy response are necessary to avoid lock-in of emission-intensive infrastructure and stranded assets. Alignment of near-term action with longer-term technology needs and policy objectives is crucial.