Employment changes associated with the introduction of taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and nonessential energy-dense food in Mexico

Abstract We assessed changes in employment in the manufacturing industry, the commercial sector and national unemployment rates, associated with the fiscal policies implemented in 2014 in Mexico: a 1 peso per liter excise tax to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and an 8% tax on nonessential energy-dense food. We used data from three nationally representative surveys. Controlling for contextual variables, we used interrupted time series analyses to model changes in number of employees in the SSB and nonessential energy-dense food industry, in commercial establishments selling beverages and food and changes in national unemployment rates. Our results show that there were no significant changes in employment associated with the taxes in the manufacturing industries (for beverages and nonessential energy-dense food). We found a very small increasing trend in the post-tax period for employment in commercial stores and a decreasing trend in the unemployment rate. However, these changes are negligible and unlikely to be caused by the implementation of the taxes. In conclusion, there were no employment reductions associated with the fiscal policies implemented in Mexico in 2014 on SSB and nonessential energy-dense food.