Contribution of Drought to Potential Crop Yield Reduction in a Wheat-Maize Rotation Region in the North China Plain

Abstract With consecutive occurrences of drought disasters in China in recent years, it is important to estimate their potential impacts on regional crop production. In this study, we detect the impacts of drought on wheat and maize yield and their changes at a 0.5°×0.5° grid scale in the wheat-maize rotation planting area in the North China Plain under the A1B climate change scenario using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model and the outputs of the regional climate modeling system – Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). Self-calibrating palmer drought severity index was used as drought recognition indicator. Two time slices used for the study were the baseline (1961–1990) and 40 years of 2011–2050. The results indicate that the potential planting region for double crop system of wheat-maize would expend northward. The statistic conclusions of crop simulations varied considerably between wheat and maize. In disaster-affected seasons, wheat yield would increase in the future compared with baseline yields, whereas in opposite for maize yield. Potential crop yield reductions caused by drought would be lower for wheat and higher for maize, with a similar trend found for the ratio of potential crop yield reductions for both crops. It appears that the negative impact of drought on maize was larger than that on wheat under climate change A1B scenario.