Regional Hazard Degree Evaluation and Prediction for Disaster Induced by Discharged Tailings Flow from Dam Failure

Tailings impoundments are the important structures for the normal mine production, which are also the potential major hazard sources of mine safety. On the basis of the previous tailings dam break model experiment and numerical simulation results, the important characteristic parameters were selected to develop a hazard degree evaluation index system for the disasters induced by the discharged tailings flow from dam failure. The evaluation model was established further by using the uncertainty measurement theory. The results show that the hazard degrees of three characteristic regions (village locations) in the downstream of tailings impoundment were evaluated; it was determined that, the regional safety level of village I was “dangerous”, while those for villages II and III were “relatively safe”. Moreover, the evolution process of discharged tailings flow was divided into three characteristic stages on the whole, and a greater sand burst amount was associated with a greater risk to the downstream of the tailings impoundment. The results were highly consistent with the results of the laboratory dam break model experiments and numerical simulations.