PERAMALAN PRODUKSI DAN KONSUMSI BERAS DOMESTIK SERTA IMPLIKASINYA TERHADAP SWASEMBADA BERAS BERKELANJUTAN DI SUMATERA SELATAN = THE FORECASTING PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF DOMESTIC RICE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE RICE SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN SOUTH SUMATERA

The purpose of this research were to analyze the growth of rice production and consumption on year 1987-2016 in South Sumatera, to analyze the influence of production and consumption factors of domestic rice in South Sumatera, to analyze the amount of production and consumption of domestic rice in the next ten years that on year 2017-2026 and its implications for sustainable rice selfsufficiency in South Sumatera. This research was conducted in South Sumatera. Data were collected in December 2017. The research method used is historical method by using time series data 30 years on year 1987-2016 in South Sumatera. Data collected in this research was secondary data that obtained from related agencies. The results from this research indicated that the growth of rice production and consumption in South Sumatera tends to increase from year to year. Based on linear regression of Cobb Douglas estimation harvested area variable and grain price were significant variables that affected domestic rice production in South Sumatera. While estimation populations variable and Gross Regional Domestic Products of Sumatera Selatan Province at Current Market Price were significant variables that affected domestic rice consumption in South Sumatera. In order to the forecasting on year 2017-2026 of production and harvested area will increase with the average of harvested area amounted to 1.042.023 hectare per year and the average of domestic rice production amounted to 5.884.222,04 tonnes per year. The forecasting consumption and population will increase with the average of population amounted to 8.964.659 soul per year and the average of domestic rice consumption amounted to 803.906,68 tonnes per year. Domestic rice production exceeds domestic rice consumption so that Sumatera Selatan capable to sustainable rice self-sufficiency.