Variable-weight and Grey Correlation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity Comprehensive Assessment

In this study,based on the grey correlation theory,a variable-weight and grey correlation model for assessing the regional water resources carrying capacity is set up.Beginning with expounding the concept of water resources carrying capacity,the indicators system for evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Sanjiang plain is established and the index grades standards are determined.Taking the measured index sequence and the grade standard sequence as comparative sequence and reference sequence,respectively,the correlation coefficient of comparative sequence and reference sequence is calculated according to the grey correlation assessment theory.Based on the variable-weight and correlation coefficient,the correlation degree is calculated,and the water resources carrying capacity grade is appraised according to the maximum correlation-degree law.Then the proposed model is applied to assess the water resources carrying capacity in Sanjiang plian,and the results show that the grade of water resources carrying capacity of Sanjiang plain is grade III now.Thereinto,the grade of water resources carrying capacity of Jixi city,Hegang city,Shuangyashan city,Jianmusi city and Yilan county,belongings to the medium level,and the socio-economic development level is in equilibrium with water system;the grade of water resources carrying capacity of Qitaihe city is at the gradeⅡ,which belongings to the less pressure state;the grade of water resources carrying capacity of Muling city is at gradeⅠ,which belongings to the least pressure state. Compared with the results of the projection pursuit evaluation model,the assessment results of the proposed model are similar, which implies the feasibility of the model and the reliability of the results.The variable-weight and grey correlation model will provide a practicable and feasible method for assessing water resources carrying capacity.