Recent Advances in Modelling of Harmful Algal Blooms

Our understanding of the dynamics of HABs, in the context of both their ecosystems and their environment, has increased tremendously through the combination of models and data. The GEOHAB program, in particular, has promoted the integration of data and models for understanding and predicting HABs. The engagement of statisticians, physical oceanographers, and modelers with the biologists investigating HABs has been a powerful boon to progress in this field. New statistical techniques have been deployed to understand and predict HABs in response to measured forcings, and new dynamic models of HABs and their ecosystems are enabling a deeper understanding of the processes governing the initiation, growth, transport, and decline of phytoplankton species and their toxins. The maturing of process models, combined with improved, data-based empirical-statistical models, has led to significant improvements in models for predicting and managing HABs.