The History of Probability Theory

An outline is given, essentially from the Bayesian point of view, of the history of probability. Because probability theory is mathematical today, histories have tended to suppose it began with the first deeply mathematical exchange, between Pascal and Fermat in the 17th century. In fact Pascal and Fermat simply led the translation of pre-existing ideas into mathematics. Special attention is paid to where these ideas came from in the prehistory of quantitative probability theory. There are acknowledged sources in philosophy but the strongest connection is with law, through the notion of the extent to which guilt is implied by evidence.